STYLIE

General Scope and Connection with Climate Mitigation

Introduction

The big-picture framework for industrial ecology and socio-metabolic research: The material and energy service cascade and the service-stock-flow nexus in the doughnut economy.

In industrial ecology and socio-metabolic research, we operationalise the doughnut economy framework by adding the different steps of the so-called energy and material service cascade, which is a cascade of system couplings, including the following links: services (like transport, thermal comfort) to wellbeing, functions (car driving, building heated) to services, products (cars, houses) to functions, energy and material to build products, energy and material to operate products, energy carriers and raw materials, resource extraction and energy conversion technologies, and the impact of all these activities on the environment (see Figure below and check here for details). Central in the energy service cascade is the so-called stock-flow service nexus, which is comprised of the blue boxes ‘services/activities’, ‘functions’, ‘products/stocks’, and build-up and operational energy and material flows. This nexus is an important system linkage in society’s metabolism, as it links energy and material flows to service provision for human wellbeing.

STYLIE (from Stylistic industial ecology (IE) model) is a simple accounting tool for the energy and material service cascade, to capture the major service flows, product stocks, and energy and material flows in a circular economy. It has a comprehensive scope, as it links service provision (a major constituent of human wellbeing) with envionmental pressures (such as resource extraction and climate impact). It's system definition, which is based on the concept of the energy and material service cascade, is shown below.

The main references for this system concept and the accounting model STYLIE are:

• For the stock-flow-service nexus in the energy service cascade (system definition), see Bergsdal et al. (2007), DOI 10.1080/09613210701287588 // Kalt et al. (2019), DOI 10.1016/j.erss.2019.02.026 // Haberl et al. (2017), DOI 10.3390/su9071049
• For existing examples of the accounting equation, see the description of the IPAT equation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_%3D_PAT) as well as the IE literature: Carmona et al. (2022), DOI 10.1016/j.egyr.2022.10.086 // Tanikawa et al. (2021), DOI 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.125450

Figure: System definition of the STYLIE accounting model.

Model Scope

STYLIE can be applied at any geographical, service sector, and material scale. As an accounting model, it does not generate new results, but uses results from existing scenarios calculated by other models to develop a set of indicators and show where in the energy service cascade the decoupling happens.

STYLIE accounting equations

The accounting equations of STYLIE (see figure on the right) follow the scheme of the widely known IPAT accounting equation (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_%3D_PAT), as they expand the total pressure indicator into the different system variables, rearranging them to a decoupling factor for each stage in the energy service cascade.

Each of the factors in the model equations has a distinct meaning. For example the variable $C/S$ denotes the material consumption $C$ needed to expand and maintain a given in-use stock $S$. The indicator raw material input $RMI$ per material production $MP$ describes the dependency of material production on natural resources, whereas its complement, the recycled content $SC/MP$ is a salient CE indicator.

The quantity $S/FU$ denotes the in-use stock needed to deliver a certain function, such as heating of buildings and vehicle kilometers driven. It illustrates the intensity of use of products, vehicles, and buildings.

To quantify the impact of CE strategies from a systems perspective, not only the implications for material use need to be looked at, but also the energy implications, as energy supply is a major driver of climate change and land use. Here, we use the energy accounting equations for energy use for operating products, vehicles, and buildings (use phase energy $E_{1}$) and the industrial energy use $E_{2}$. Salient indicators here are the GHG intensity of energy supply $EP/PE$, the energy intensity of the in-use stock $E_{1}/S$, and the energy intensity of material supply $E_{2}/C$.

Next to the indicators listed in the equations, a number of other salient CE performance and impact indicators can be quantfied if the supplying models provide the corresponding information to STYLIE, including

• Material productivity of service provision as $SV/RMI$
• Stock retention time as $S/C$ (average time it takes to completely replace the existing in-use stock with the current consumption level)
• Material stock productivity as $SV/S$
• Material productivity of the economy as $GDP/RMI$

Here, a set of sample results will be displayed when the first trial implementation of STYLIE is completed.

Model Development

• Status: Under implementation for analysing CIRCOMOD results with simple but insightful graphical visualisations
• Environment: javascript
• Documentation: https://github.com/Nilly92/IEF_Visualization/ (will be made publicly available once the implementation is mature)
• Source code: https://github.com/Nilly92/IEF_Visualization/ (will be made publicly available once the implementation is mature)

Circular Economy Features

The main relevance of STYLIE for assessing circular economy strategies lies in its explicit inclusion of the stock-flow-service nexus (services require in-use stocks, which in turn require energy and mateiral input for their operation, maintenance, and expansion), as well as its inclusion of primary (from natural resources) and secondary (via recycling) material production. With its broad system coverage (from environmental pressure to service provision), all CE strategies that affect one or more steps in the energy service cascade shown above are included in the assessment.

This includes, in particular, the following strategies:

• tbd

The additional energy and environmental pressure (including GHG) accounting equations allow us to assess the envionmental implications of different CE strategies, provided that the underlying scenario model reports pressures such as GHG emissions and beyond. The model indicators show the net effect of different CE and other sustainable development strategies (such as low-carbon energy or sufficiency), so that the overall synergies and trade-offs acrossa a wide spectrum of transformation strategies can be shown.

Insights for Analytical Framework

STYLIE allows for analysing the large trends in service provision, material cycles, and energy use. It shows where decoupling happens in the energy service cascade and where not, pointing to contradictory trends or overlooked mitigation options.

Due to its flexibility in terms of variables included and model results analysed, it can be used to illustrate and consistency-check a wide spectrum of CE models.

At the same time, the explorative nature of the tools allows for demonstrating the overall effect of different CE strategies under different scenario assumption as well as the the communication of key CE dynamics to a broader audience.

Refinement, Integration, Future Development

Refinement process

Since not all models will be able to calculate all variables in the system definition of STYLIE, the accounting equations (see above) will be simplified (aggregated) or modified so that the system definition and salient stocks and flows of the different models can be depicted.

Integration

Building on model results supplied to the CIRCOMOD data hub, STYLIE-based visualisations will be implemented on the project's homepage.

Future features of the model

Different visualisations of STYLIE results and new STYLIE indicators will be developed to address the various research questions on the performance and impact of CE strategies at different locations in the system.